Iowa Democratic Odds
After more than a year of anticipation, suspense, and tens of thousands of hours of combined news coverage, the Iowa Caucuses are finally upon us. While IA has a host of upcoming local and federal elections in November, the Iowa caucuses are getting top billing right now. The caucuses were held on Monday, February 3, 2020 (which is, incidentally, the day after the Super Bowl). Iowans will next be asked to perform their civic duty to vote in the 2020 Presidential Election in November.
Online sportsbook Bovada has released the 2024 Democratic nominee odds with Biden sitting as the +250 favorite. As for who will get the Democratic nomination, OddsShark places Sanders as the heavy favorite in Iowa. Sanders leads at +160 as of January 29, followed by Biden at +185, Bloomberg at +500,. But the odds in Iowa don’t always reflect the national polls. Right now in Iowa it’s a four-horse race for the Democrats. The first in the nation caucus or primary takes place Feb. 3, 2020 in Iowa, and marks the moment where betting on candidates begins to get serious.
Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield is the favorite to win with 4/5 odds, narrowly beating out Republican incumbent Joni Ernst, who has 10/11 odds. In Iowa, GOP Sen. Joni Ernst is running against Democrat Theresa Greenfield. “Capital Alpha now flips to predict 55% odds of a Democratic White House and Senate,” the analysts wrote in a.
Historically, Iowa is the first state to decide the candidates it favors to represent both the Democratic and Republican parties in each cycle’s Presidential election, and it’s often considered – along with New Hampshire – to be the most weighty vote in the entire race. Iowa is the trendsetter, and more often than not, the candidates selected there eventually come away with the nominations. In other words, whoever wins will get the best Presidential election odds going forward.
A little further down on the page you will find the results for each candidate for the Iowa Caucus and the 2020 Presidential Election odds.
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2020 Iowa General Election Information
Date: Tuesday, November 3, 2020
Iowa Democratic Odds 2019
Federal Election
- Electoral College Votes: 6
- House seats up for election: 4
- Senate seats up for election: 1
State Election
- House seats up for election: 100
- Senate seats up for election: 25
- Governorship up for election: No
2020 Presidential Election Odds
- Donald Trump (R) TBA*
- Joe Biden (D) TBA*
*Odds Provided By Bovada.
How Did IA Vote In The 2016 Presidential Election?
Donald Trump handily won the 2016 Presidential election in Iowa, taking all but six counties and earning 51.15% of the popular vote. Hillary Clinton won 41.74% of the popular vote. That said, the traditionally conservative state is not considered a foregone conclusion for the GOP in 2020, so you can expect heavy campaigning in IA from both parties.
What is Iowa’s Political Makeup?
- State House: Republican majority (53-47)
- State Senate: Republican majority (32-18)
- Gubernatorial: Republican
2020 Iowa Electoral Odds
- Republican Candidate -275
- Democratic Candidate +200
DNC Iowa Caucus Results:
While the full results of the Iowa Democratic caucus have not been released yet, Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders are virtually tied. This means that whatever the final numbers turn out to be, it is likely the two will come away with the same number of Iowa delegates. Elizabeth Warren should earn a few scraps due to her probable third-place finish, as she’s garnered a bit better than 1/1024th of the state vote.
Though it remains possible that other candidates will pick up a delegate or two with the final count, Joe Biden’s campaign is clearly on shaky ground, and the former national front-runner is now almost certainly out of contention for the Democratic nomination.
- Pete Buttigieg – 26.2%, 11 delegates
- Bernie Sanders – 26.1%, 11 delegates
- Elizabeth Warren – 18.2%, 5 delegates
- Joe Biden – 15.8%, 0 delegates
- Amy Klobuchar – 12.2%, 0 delegates
- Andrew Yang – 1%, 0 delegates
- Tom Steyer – 0.3%, 0 delegates
- Deval Patrick – 0%, 0 delegates
- John Delaney – 0%, 0 delegates
- Michael Bennet – 0%, 0 delegates
- Michael Bloomberg – 0%, 0 delegates
- Tulsi Gabbard – 0%, 0 delegates
Odds For 2020 Iowa Caucus Winners – Democratic Party
When you look at who won the Iowa caucus in 2016 on the Democrat side, you’ll see that that candidate – Hillary Clinton (by a hair over Bernie Sanders) – went on to represent the DNC in the national election. The stakes really are that high.
The 2020 Democratic betting odds, however, are all over the place. There are several caucus contenders in the mix, including Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, and Michael Bloomberg, to name a few. Even Andrew Yang deserves a mention, blackouts be darned!
- Bernie Sanders -275
- Joe Biden +275
- Elizabeth Warren +1000
- Pete Buttigieg +1000
- Andrew Yang +2200
- Amy Klobuchar +3300
- Tom Steyer +10000
- Tulsi Gabbard +10000
Update: With the Iowa caucus results slowly (and painfully) trickling in, the race is neck-and-neck between Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders. Sanders is leading slightly in the popular vote, but Ex-Mayor Pete has the edge in precincts. That said, the race could go either way, though all the other candidates can consider the Iowa caucus a loss, with Joe Biden the biggest loser of all. For those who took Buttigieg at +1000 odds, a hefty payout could be looming.
Odds For 2020 Iowa Caucus Winners – Republican Party
In the 2016 Iowa caucuses, in a heavily contested field, Ted Cruz edged out Donald Trump, though The Donald took New Hampshire easily and never looked back. Had Trump not finished so close to Cruz in Iowa, however, he likely would not be President today. That’s how important this race is, and that’s why you’ll find Iowa caucus betting odds at every major offshore betting site.
This year, the Republican nominee is all but guaranteed to be President Trump (which you can see on the GOP odds boards), as he’s the incumbent and has record party support. Most sites are thus not offering Iowa caucus odds on Trump.
- Odds For Donald Trump To Win Iowa Caucus: N/A
Iowa Democratic Primary Betting Odds
Update: Trump won the Iowa Republican caucus easily, taking 97% of the vote. Trump is thus allotted 39 delegates, while challenger Bill Weld received 1 delegate. Joe Walsh received 0 delegates.
2020 IA Caucus Voter Information
- When do the polls open? The Iowa caucuses are not traditional elections, but the DNC and GOP events will be held on Monday, February 3, 2020. Typically, voters will gather at their caucus venues throughout the day, and candidate selection will happen in the evening around 7:00 pm.
- Where do I go to vote? To find your Iowa caucus location, you can use the form provided by the IA Secretary of State website. Once you determine your polling place, simply go to the caucus locale associated with your precinct.
- Can I vote early in IA? Yes, Iowa offers early voting for its primary and general elections. However, because of the nature of caucuses, these events do not support early voting.
- Does Iowa offer absentee voting?Iowa absentee ballots are available, and you can either mail in your vote or cast your absentee ballot in person. However, you cannot cast an absentee vote for the Iowa caucuses.
Betting on the 2020 IA Presidential Caucus
Odds are finally available for the 2020 Iowa Presidential Caucus (see above), and as the nation’s biggest primary event approaches, the best political betting sites all have comprehensive lines for it. Of course, you aren’t just limited to wagering on caucuses and primaries, as there are several other fun categories of election odds to choose from, including Trump impeachment betting and other political specials.
Bernie Sanders
Nomination: $2.54
President: $5.80
Although Sanders didn’t have the clear victory that the betting projected in Iowa, he definitely emerges as the front-runner. He’s trading below $1.20 and $1.50 to win the next races in New Hampshire and Nevada respectively. If he delivers in both, he would surely be heavily odds-on for the nomination.
Iowa Democratic Odds Against
Why, therefore, is he available to back above $2.50? A view that Democrat voters will eventually coalesce around a more moderate alternative. Sanders is nowhere near 50% nationally, or even it seems in New Hampshire. Even with a fast start, he may not win a majority of delegates, thus prompting speculation of a contested, or brokered, Democrat Convention.
The market will likely resist Sanders all year to some extent, because hype about an establishment stitch-up against him will proliferate. In many respects, this Democrat race is beginning to mirror the 2016 Republican race, when outsider Trump fought mulitple establishment candidates. We know how that ended. Bernie’s odds for both markets are pretty generous and likely to shorten in the weeks ahead.